Trump’s presidency may affect Canadian lumber industry, UPEI professor says.

By Daniel Brown

March 3, 2017

Canada’s softwood lumber industry may face problems during Donald Trump’s presidency, says a UPEI political science professor.

Don Desserud isn’t worried about Trump potentially tearing up the North American Free Trade Agreement, but the lumber industry may be at risk, he said.

“[Some] areas, which are protected under NAFTA, are I think going to be viewed aggressively.”

The softwood lumber conflict comes from stumpage fees, the price charged to harvest lumber. The U.S. has attacked it four times since 1982.

        “We have won every single time,” Desserud said.

        The Canadian lumber industry is run provincially. In the U.S. it’s mostly privately owned. So, Canadian stumpage fees are generally subsidized, while U.S. fees are based on the competitive market.

        If Trump’s administration brought the case again, it would go back to the beginning, Desserud said.

        “So we haven’t gotten anywhere on that one.”

The federal government knows there may be rocky days ahead.

Liberal MP Sean Casey said his government is making sure there is a respect present in dealing with the U.S. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently shuffled his cabinet to align talents with Trump’s administration, Casey said.

Time will tell how Trump’s presidency will affect the two nations, he said.

"It’s going to have a major impact,” the Charlottetown MP said. “We’re going to have to work with this administration.”

The U.S. is entitled to elect whomever they want, and Canadians are obligated to deal with it. Still, the government is responding in a manner that is in Canada’s best interest, Casey said.

“Poking the bear ain’t the way to go.”